We are sharing good news from Thailand: a reduction in the key interest rate, low inflation and a stable labor market set a moderately favorable macroeconomic context for 2026. Read more in our digest.
Monetary policy
In December, the Bank of Thailand again lowered its key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25%. The decision reflects a cautious but consistent policy to support economic activity against a backdrop of slowing inflationary pressures.
Economic growth
The International Monetary Fund has maintained Thailand's GDP growth forecast at 2.0% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, indicating a moderate but steady economic recovery trajectory.
Incomes of the population
The IMF estimates that GDP per capita will reach $7,942 in 2025, an increase of $449. compared to 2024 (+6.0%). This is one of the indicators of a gradual improvement in domestic demand.
The labor market
The unemployment rate in Thailand, according to IMF data, has been held at 1% for three years in a row, remaining one of the lowest rates in the region and forming the basis for social and macroeconomic stability.
Inflation
As of December 2025, the IMF forecasts a decrease in inflation to 0.2%, the lowest level in the last five years. This increases the space for further decisions within the framework of a soft monetary policy.
The combination of lower interest rates, low inflation, and a stable labor market creates a favorable macro environment, which we continue to closely monitor.
Monetary policy
In December, the Bank of Thailand again lowered its key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25%. The decision reflects a cautious but consistent policy to support economic activity against a backdrop of slowing inflationary pressures.
Economic growth
The International Monetary Fund has maintained Thailand's GDP growth forecast at 2.0% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, indicating a moderate but steady economic recovery trajectory.
Incomes of the population
The IMF estimates that GDP per capita will reach $7,942 in 2025, an increase of $449. compared to 2024 (+6.0%). This is one of the indicators of a gradual improvement in domestic demand.
The labor market
The unemployment rate in Thailand, according to IMF data, has been held at 1% for three years in a row, remaining one of the lowest rates in the region and forming the basis for social and macroeconomic stability.
Inflation
As of December 2025, the IMF forecasts a decrease in inflation to 0.2%, the lowest level in the last five years. This increases the space for further decisions within the framework of a soft monetary policy.
The combination of lower interest rates, low inflation, and a stable labor market creates a favorable macro environment, which we continue to closely monitor.